Bitfinex

**Bitcoin's Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has dropped below 1** for the third time since January 2024, signaling potential market bottom. **Key insights:** - aSOPR measures whether traders sell BTC at profit or loss - Previous sub-1 readings in August 2024 and April 2025 marked local bottoms - The metric uses moving averages to smooth noisy data **Historical pattern suggests** Bitcoin may have found another local floor, based on consistent behavior at these technical levels. This on-chain indicator strengthens the case for a potential price recovery from current levels.

**Markets are consolidating** as optimism gradually returns following October's massive $19B liquidation event. **Key Support Holding** - BTC trading above 0.85 supply quantile cost basis - Only 15% of circulating supply currently in loss - **$107K-$108K zone** acting as gravitational support line **Market Dynamics** - Volatility remains compressed - Bitcoin defending key technical levels - Delicate balance between stability and next directional move **External Factors** - Rising energy prices creating market uncertainty - FX volatility across global markets - **Potential catalyst**: Additional liquidity could flow toward crypto The market appears to be in a consolidation phase after the dramatic October selloff, with traders watching whether current support levels will hold or if another move is brewing.

Bitcoin experienced its most dramatic crash in history, plummeting from above $126,000 to briefly below $103,310 - an **18.1% drawdown** that triggered unprecedented market chaos. **The damage was severe:** - 22.6% market crash erased **$1 trillion** in hours - Over **$19 billion in liquidations** - the largest on record - Massive selling pressure across all major cryptocurrencies Despite the carnage, **on-chain data reveals potential silver linings**. Early indicators suggest resilience patterns may be forming, hinting at possible recovery foundations. This crash marks a pivotal moment for crypto markets, testing the maturity and stability that analysts have been tracking through previous consolidation phases. [Read full analysis](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-after-the-carnage-still-some-hope/)

**Bitcoin stabilized** after recent dips as buyers stepped in, but short-term holders are cashing out significantly. **Key metrics:** - Short-term holders realized **$189M per day** in profits - This represents **79% of all STH gains** - 36 million short-term holders involved in profit-taking **Market implications:** The heavy profit-taking by short-term holders could **limit Bitcoin's upward momentum** despite dip-buying support. This creates a tension between stabilizing forces and selling pressure. **Analysis context:** The data comes amid broader **stagflation pressures** affecting markets globally. Read the full analysis: [Bitfinex Alpha Report](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-rebounds-as-stagflation-pressures-mount/)

Bitcoin ended the week **+4.2%**, breaking a three-week losing streak and reclaiming the **$112.5K** level. **Key Support Holds** - Strong buying emerged near $108K support - Price now trading in critical $110K-$116K range **What's Next** - Break above $116K could confirm upward momentum - Consolidation below current levels would indicate base building - Q4 positioning becomes increasingly important The rebound comes as buyers stepped in decisively at key technical levels. Market participants are now watching whether Bitcoin can sustain above $112.5K or if further consolidation is needed. [Read full analysis](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-rebounds-as-stagflation-pressures-mount/) for detailed charts and on-chain signals behind the recovery.

**Bond markets are showing stress signals** with rising long-term yields and falling short-term rates, creating a challenging backdrop of weak employment and persistent inflation. **September remains quiet for Bitcoin**, but market conditions are aligning for potential movement ahead. The combination of: - Expected rate cuts from central banks - Strong historical Q4 seasonal patterns - Current market consolidation phase Suggests **October and November could deliver Bitcoin's next significant move**. **Stagflation risks** are emerging as bond market distortions continue, but Bitcoin's seasonal strength typically peaks during the final quarter. The question remains whether BTC can break higher into year-end despite macroeconomic headwinds. [Read the full Bitfinex Alpha analysis](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-btc-consolidates-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-contort/)

Bitfinex is hosting an exclusive AMA session on their Telegram channel with a prominent Web3 figure. The event will be moderated by @BitFreedomGus. Key Details: - Special edition AMA with mystery guest - Host: @BitFreedomGus - Platform: Bitfinex Telegram - Join link: [Bitfinex Telegram](https://t.me/bitfinex) This follows their successful July AMA featuring LaymansCrypto from TokenFi.

Bitcoin maintained support at $114,800 after last week's 5% drop that triggered $1.46B in long liquidations. While BTC shows resilience, attention is shifting to altcoins with open interest expanding from $26B to $44B since July. Key developments: - ETH dominance growing with increased speculative inflows - Daily liquidations averaging $350M indicate high leverage - US economic data shows weakness - Institutional crypto interest continues rising Market structure suggests rotation from BTC to alts, though elevated leverage raises risk levels. Long-term holders are distributing while ETFs and retail absorb supply near all-time highs.

LaymansCrypto, Social Media Coordinator at TokenFi, will host a live AMA session on Bitfinex's Telegram channel. **Event Details:** - Date: July 4, 2025 - Time: 2PM UTC - Platform: [Bitfinex Telegram](http://t.me/bitfinex) - Host: @BitFreedomGus Community members can submit questions through the [submission form](https://forms.gle/D1eNETgSBc1bbdsz5) until 23:59 UTC. *Join the discussion to learn more about TokenFi's latest developments.*

Bitcoin continues its consolidation phase between $100K-$110K, with strong support at $98.7K and notably low leverage levels. Historical data indicates Q3 typically represents Bitcoin's weakest quarter, characterized by: - Reduced market volatility - Slower price movements - Extended consolidation periods This pattern follows an 81-day trading range of $91K-$102K earlier in 2025, marked by: - Historic low volatility levels - Bearish Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse - Significant altcoin corrections (PEPE -46.4%) *Key question*: Will current market conditions break from historical Q3 patterns? [Read full analysis on Bitfinex Alpha](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-btc-consolidates-ahead-of-q3/)