Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals After Extreme Market Deleveraging
Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals After Extreme Market Deleveraging
🔄 Bitcoin Bottom Signals
Bitcoin may be forming a stabilisation phase after experiencing extreme market conditions, according to Bitfinex Alpha analysis.
Key market indicators suggest potential relief bounce:
- Extreme deleveraging has cleared excess positions
- Short-term holders showing capitulation signals
- Early signs of seller exhaustion emerging
This follows Bitcoin's significant correction from recent highs, with the market experiencing one of its most meaningful drawdowns of the cycle. The combination of these factors historically creates conditions for local bottoms.
Previous context shows pattern:
- BTC triggered strong early-bottom signals after sharp drawdown
- Market saw classic stabilisation ingredients align
- Four straight weekly declines - first time in over 500 days
While volatility remains elevated, the current setup mirrors previous cyclical bottom formations. The question remains whether this marks the start of recovery or if more downside pressure continues.
Analysts note this consolidation phase, rather than full capitulation, could provide the foundation for the next market move as demand conditions potentially improve.
Crypto liquidations in the last two days have topped $2.8 billion, Bitcoin slipped below $100k, and there are now reduced expectations of a December rate cut are in the air. Why? Our research team has dug into what’s happening. Let’s dive into it! Time for a thread 🧵
Bitcoin declined by over 21% from its October all-time high last week, briefly dipping below the psychological $100,000 level to $99,045. Rather than signalling a sell-off, this move points to the formation of a new consolidation base.
Markets are consolidating and optimism is gradually returning. ⚡️ After October’s $19B liquidation, BTC is still trading above the 0.85 supply quantile cost basis, where 15% of circulating supply would be in loss. More ⬇️
Crypto markets are benefitting from volatility in traditional assets. In what is usually the opposite case, surges in Brent crude to ~$65/barrel, is prompting institutional investors to reassess exposures across bonds, equities, and alternatives - including Bitcoin and Ether. ⬇️
Market pressure on Bitcoin shows seasoned investors are cashing out, according to Bitfinex Alpha. Long-Term Holders are offloading ~104K BTC/month - the sharpest selling wave since July - adding structural pressure as they lock in gains. Read more ⬇️ issuu.com/docs/1ecc7cbae…
📉 #Bitcoin has now posted four straight weekly declines - something we haven’t seen in over 500 days. This time, the move is sharper: over the last month, BTC has fallen 30.6%, even deeper than the 24% drawdown during the 2024 consolidation phase.
BTC slips to 96k Why is the market retracing even after the US government re-opened following the longest shutdown in history? • Key economic data is still missing to guide the market & the Fed • It is not clear how much damage the shutdown has had on growth and productivity
Bitcoin’s 25% pullback may not be as consequential as it may seem. Despite trading below $94K, selling is slowing, hinting at early consolidation rather than full capitulation. Watch our video for details and read the full report: blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha…
Bitcoin lost the $ 107,000 to $ 108,000 region last week and slipped under $ 100,000. That zone carried strong technical and on-chain weight, and the breakdown opened room for deeper price action. 📉
Good morning from Lugano 🇨🇭 Today @ThalexGlobal and Bitfinex Derivatives welcome leading investors, traders, and quantitative experts to the Gamma Summit. A private gathering exploring Bitcoin volatility, options, and liquidity.
“Bitcoin’s volatility is gradually coming down. New types of products are changing market structure and how options interact with perpetual markets.” A key takeaway from the Fireside Chat with @adam3us and @minus1_12 at Bitfinex Derivatives Gamma Summit.
The market’s pulse has slowed. Following last week’s rate cut - but no promise of more - traders are treading carefully. The aftermath of the historic 10.10 liquidation has left markets calmer, as directional flows subside and momentum resets. A thread 🧵
Holding 113k per BTC is critical. 🚨 “Trading above this level has historically marked the transition from corrective phases to accumulation phases.” Failing to do so poses the risk of a deeper retracement toward 97,500. - Bitfinex Alpha in @coindesk coindesk.com/markets/2025/1…
Bitcoin just triggered one of its strongest early-bottom signals of the cycle. After a sharp drawdown, BTC staged a notable rebound, aligning closely with the timing of previous local bottoms, even as volatility remains elevated… Could this be the start of a recovery?
Long-term holders are still taking profits and it’s weighing on the market. Since July, LTH supply has dropped by 0.3M BTC, signalling steady selling as new buyers struggle to match the pace. With inflows muted, the risk of demand exhaustion is rising. 👇
📉 Bitcoin’s momentum is fading & the market’s entering a “reset” phase. After a brief bounce on softer US inflation data, BTC slipped back below key support around $113K. Traders are watching $97.5K as the next line of defence. Here’s what else is shaping the month in crypto👇
At the inaugural Gamma Summit with @contrariangab of @herclegroup, Pierre-Antoine Mudry of @stsdigital_io, and Faiz Rasool say the 10.10 liquidation could have been eased if options markets were deeper, and that adoption will grow once education, liquidity, and better UX are met.
Bitcoin may have found its footing - but the foundation still looks shaky. After a steep $19B liquidation and an 18% drawdown, BTC is stabilising near $107K–$108K. The question now: is this consolidation or the calm before another move? 👇
Where the future of Bitcoin derivatives is defined. The Gamma Summit, hosted by @ThalexGlobal & Bitfinex Derivatives @bitfinex, brings together leading voices in Bitcoin options, futures, volatility & liquidity. Featuring @paoloardoino, @adam3us, @minus1_12 & @FedericoTenga 🧵
Crypto markets are delicately poised, but we have seen all this before: The current correction is similar to June 2024 and Feb 2025, both pivotal inflexion points balancing between recovery and deeper contraction. Bitfinex Alpha in @cointelegraph cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-e…
Our latest Alpha video breaks down last week’s market tone. BTC touched $99,045 in a move that fits earlier mid-cycle resets. We expect some short term rallies to the short-term holder level over $112k, but the lower bound is the Active Investors Realised Price around $88,500.
“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” - Bitfinex Alpha x.com/cryptonews/sta…
🚀 Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound this week, climbing nearly 8% in a single day as analysts pointed to signs that a local bottom may already be in. #Bitcoin #Crypto cryptonews.com/news/bitfinex-…
Unlock the next level of Bitcoin derivatives! The Gamma Summit, hosted by @ThalexGlobal & Bitfinex Derivatives (@bitfinex), is an invite-only forum for professionals to explore options, futures, volatility, hedging & liquidity.
🚨 Bitcoin just logged its third-largest drawdown of this cycle - down 25% from its ATH. Momentum still points downward on lower timeframes… but the pace of selling is finally stabilising. We see this as early signs of consolidation, not capitulation. ⬇️
Bitcoin Spot Trading Shows First Neutral Signal After Months of Selling Pressure
**Market equilibrium emerges** after extended bearish period Bitcoin spot trading has reached a significant milestone - the 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta has maintained neutral territory for **10 consecutive days**. This metric tracks the difference between spot taker buys and sells across centralized exchanges. **Key developments:** - First sustained neutral reading after months of sell-side dominance - Suggests potential exhaustion among sellers - Could signal shift in market sentiment The Cumulative Volume Delta measures buying vs selling pressure by analyzing actual transaction flows. When neutral, it indicates balanced market participation between buyers and sellers. **What this means:** After an extended period where sellers controlled the market, we're seeing the first signs of equilibrium. This doesn't guarantee a bullish reversal, but it suggests the intense selling pressure may be waning. Traders and analysts will be watching closely to see if this neutral trend continues or if either buyers or sellers regain control of the market dynamics.
📈 Margin Trading Hits Record Highs
**Margin trading borrowing has reached new all-time highs** as investors heavily leverage their positions. This surge indicates strong confidence in market volatility and trading opportunities. However, it also creates **increased market fragility**. **Key risks:** - High leverage amplifies both gains and losses - Sharp price movements could trigger cascading liquidations - Market stability becomes more vulnerable to sudden shifts The elevated borrowing levels suggest traders expect continued volatility but also signal potential for more dramatic market swings if sentiment changes.
🔗 Stable Network Token
**Bitfinex announces listing of Stable governance token** The Stable Network, a blockchain designed specifically for stablecoins, is coming to Bitfinex exchange. **Key features of Stable Network:** - High throughput performance - Predictable transaction processing - Regulatory compliance focus - Stablecoin-optimized infrastructure The platform combines technical efficiency with regulatory alignment, positioning itself as a specialized solution for stablecoin operations. [Read full announcement](https://blog.bitfinex.com/media-releases/bitfinex-to-list-stable-governance-token-of-the-stable-network/)
🤖 Kids Outpace Adults
**Young programmers are mastering tech skills faster than previous generations.** - Children are building apps before most adults write their first line of code - **Zero-fear approach** gives kids an advantage in learning programming and robotics - Natural curiosity and focus help young builders tackle complex projects **Codepeques founder @aguileradev** shares insights from Medellín on how children approach technology differently than adults. The conversation highlights how **early exposure to programming** creates confident young developers who aren't intimidated by technical challenges. [Watch the full Bitfinex Talks episode](https://youtu.be/pXqMJDs07LQ) for complete insights on youth tech education.