Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals After Extreme Market Deleveraging
Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals After Extreme Market Deleveraging
🔄 Bitcoin Bottom Signals
Bitcoin may be forming a stabilisation phase after experiencing extreme market conditions, according to Bitfinex Alpha analysis.
Key market indicators suggest potential relief bounce:
- Extreme deleveraging has cleared excess positions
- Short-term holders showing capitulation signals
- Early signs of seller exhaustion emerging
This follows Bitcoin's significant correction from recent highs, with the market experiencing one of its most meaningful drawdowns of the cycle. The combination of these factors historically creates conditions for local bottoms.
Previous context shows pattern:
- BTC triggered strong early-bottom signals after sharp drawdown
- Market saw classic stabilisation ingredients align
- Four straight weekly declines - first time in over 500 days
While volatility remains elevated, the current setup mirrors previous cyclical bottom formations. The question remains whether this marks the start of recovery or if more downside pressure continues.
Analysts note this consolidation phase, rather than full capitulation, could provide the foundation for the next market move as demand conditions potentially improve.
Crypto liquidations in the last two days have topped $2.8 billion, Bitcoin slipped below $100k, and there are now reduced expectations of a December rate cut are in the air. Why? Our research team has dug into what’s happening. Let’s dive into it! Time for a thread 🧵
Bitcoin declined by over 21% from its October all-time high last week, briefly dipping below the psychological $100,000 level to $99,045. Rather than signalling a sell-off, this move points to the formation of a new consolidation base.
Markets are consolidating and optimism is gradually returning. ⚡️ After October’s $19B liquidation, BTC is still trading above the 0.85 supply quantile cost basis, where 15% of circulating supply would be in loss. More ⬇️
Crypto markets are benefitting from volatility in traditional assets. In what is usually the opposite case, surges in Brent crude to ~$65/barrel, is prompting institutional investors to reassess exposures across bonds, equities, and alternatives - including Bitcoin and Ether. ⬇️
Market pressure on Bitcoin shows seasoned investors are cashing out, according to Bitfinex Alpha. Long-Term Holders are offloading ~104K BTC/month - the sharpest selling wave since July - adding structural pressure as they lock in gains. Read more ⬇️ issuu.com/docs/1ecc7cbae…
📉 #Bitcoin has now posted four straight weekly declines - something we haven’t seen in over 500 days. This time, the move is sharper: over the last month, BTC has fallen 30.6%, even deeper than the 24% drawdown during the 2024 consolidation phase.
BTC slips to 96k Why is the market retracing even after the US government re-opened following the longest shutdown in history? • Key economic data is still missing to guide the market & the Fed • It is not clear how much damage the shutdown has had on growth and productivity
Bitcoin’s 25% pullback may not be as consequential as it may seem. Despite trading below $94K, selling is slowing, hinting at early consolidation rather than full capitulation. Watch our video for details and read the full report: blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha…
Bitcoin lost the $ 107,000 to $ 108,000 region last week and slipped under $ 100,000. That zone carried strong technical and on-chain weight, and the breakdown opened room for deeper price action. 📉
Good morning from Lugano 🇨🇭 Today @ThalexGlobal and Bitfinex Derivatives welcome leading investors, traders, and quantitative experts to the Gamma Summit. A private gathering exploring Bitcoin volatility, options, and liquidity.
“Bitcoin’s volatility is gradually coming down. New types of products are changing market structure and how options interact with perpetual markets.” A key takeaway from the Fireside Chat with @adam3us and @minus1_12 at Bitfinex Derivatives Gamma Summit.
The market’s pulse has slowed. Following last week’s rate cut - but no promise of more - traders are treading carefully. The aftermath of the historic 10.10 liquidation has left markets calmer, as directional flows subside and momentum resets. A thread 🧵
Holding 113k per BTC is critical. 🚨 “Trading above this level has historically marked the transition from corrective phases to accumulation phases.” Failing to do so poses the risk of a deeper retracement toward 97,500. - Bitfinex Alpha in @coindesk coindesk.com/markets/2025/1…
Bitcoin just triggered one of its strongest early-bottom signals of the cycle. After a sharp drawdown, BTC staged a notable rebound, aligning closely with the timing of previous local bottoms, even as volatility remains elevated… Could this be the start of a recovery?
Long-term holders are still taking profits and it’s weighing on the market. Since July, LTH supply has dropped by 0.3M BTC, signalling steady selling as new buyers struggle to match the pace. With inflows muted, the risk of demand exhaustion is rising. 👇
📉 Bitcoin’s momentum is fading & the market’s entering a “reset” phase. After a brief bounce on softer US inflation data, BTC slipped back below key support around $113K. Traders are watching $97.5K as the next line of defence. Here’s what else is shaping the month in crypto👇
At the inaugural Gamma Summit with @contrariangab of @herclegroup, Pierre-Antoine Mudry of @stsdigital_io, and Faiz Rasool say the 10.10 liquidation could have been eased if options markets were deeper, and that adoption will grow once education, liquidity, and better UX are met.
Bitcoin may have found its footing - but the foundation still looks shaky. After a steep $19B liquidation and an 18% drawdown, BTC is stabilising near $107K–$108K. The question now: is this consolidation or the calm before another move? 👇
Where the future of Bitcoin derivatives is defined. The Gamma Summit, hosted by @ThalexGlobal & Bitfinex Derivatives @bitfinex, brings together leading voices in Bitcoin options, futures, volatility & liquidity. Featuring @paoloardoino, @adam3us, @minus1_12 & @FedericoTenga 🧵
Crypto markets are delicately poised, but we have seen all this before: The current correction is similar to June 2024 and Feb 2025, both pivotal inflexion points balancing between recovery and deeper contraction. Bitfinex Alpha in @cointelegraph cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-e…
Our latest Alpha video breaks down last week’s market tone. BTC touched $99,045 in a move that fits earlier mid-cycle resets. We expect some short term rallies to the short-term holder level over $112k, but the lower bound is the Active Investors Realised Price around $88,500.
“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” - Bitfinex Alpha x.com/cryptonews/sta…
Unlock the next level of Bitcoin derivatives! The Gamma Summit, hosted by @ThalexGlobal & Bitfinex Derivatives (@bitfinex), is an invite-only forum for professionals to explore options, futures, volatility, hedging & liquidity.
🚨 Bitcoin just logged its third-largest drawdown of this cycle - down 25% from its ATH. Momentum still points downward on lower timeframes… but the pace of selling is finally stabilising. We see this as early signs of consolidation, not capitulation. ⬇️
Bitcoin ETFs See Longest Inflow Streak in 21 Weeks as $68k Resistance Looms
**Bitcoin ETF Performance** - $BTC ETFs recorded seven consecutive sessions of net inflows, marking the longest streak in 21 weeks - ETF flows serve as the primary demand driver, showing correlation with 30-day returns since their launch **Market Dynamics** - Bitcoin is approaching the critical $68k resistance level - Breaking above this threshold requires sustained inflow momentum - Current inflows at 53 basis points per $100M aren't independently driving price action **Broader Context** Macro factors, particularly geopolitical tensions involving Iran, are exerting more influence on price movements than ETF data alone. The market needs continued institutional interest to push through key resistance levels.
Bitcoin Put/Call Ratio Hits 2026 Low as Traders Drop Downside Protection
Bitcoin's put/call open interest ratio has fallen to 0.56, marking the lowest level of 2026. This metric suggests traders are reducing their downside protection positions. **Key observations:** - Implied volatility remains below 40% despite FOMC meeting scheduled for next week - Traders showing less concern about tail risk events - Market sentiment appears to be improving based on options positioning The declining put/call ratio, combined with subdued volatility expectations, indicates a shift in trader sentiment. With the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, the lack of hedging activity suggests market participants are not anticipating significant downside moves.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Stop Selling as Market Pressure Eases
**Long-term bitcoin holders have nearly stopped taking profits**, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. - Sell-side pressure has eased for the first time since September 2025 - Holders stepping back while supply remains in loss territory - This pattern has historically indicated seller exhaustion during late-stage bear markets The reduced selling activity from long-term holders suggests a potential turning point in market sentiment. When experienced holders stop realizing losses, it often signals they believe current prices represent a bottom. This behavior contrasts sharply with earlier in 2025, when these same holders were actively taking profits and capping price rallies.
Bitcoin Supply in Loss Drops Below 50% After Hitting Cycle Bottom Signal
**Key Market Signal Flashes Then Retreats** Bitcoin's supply in loss briefly crossed the 50% threshold on June 30—a historically significant indicator that has marked cycle bottoms since 2011. The metric has since fallen back below 50%. **Historical Performance** - Median 1-year forward returns following this signal: **74%** - Previous occurrence: 2022 - Supply in loss peaked at 10.5M coins in early June, now at 9.3M **What This Means** The crossing of this threshold represents a moment when half of all Bitcoin holders are underwater on their positions. Historically, this has coincided with market bottoms and preceded substantial recoveries. The key question now: will the supply in loss continue declining, or will it return to recent highs? The direction of this metric could signal whether the market has truly found its bottom.
T. Rowe Price Launches Multi-Token ETF with 41% Bitcoin Allocation
T. Rowe Price, a $1.89 trillion asset manager, has launched TKNZ, an actively managed multi-token ETF that reveals institutional thinking on crypto portfolio construction. **Initial Allocation Breakdown:** - Bitcoin: 41% - Ethereum: 18% - BNB: 11% - Smaller positions in XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid The fund's structure allows active rotation among up to 15 approved tokens, giving the manager flexibility to adjust holdings based on market conditions. This approach differs from single-asset crypto ETFs by offering diversified exposure across multiple digital assets.