Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals After Extreme Market Deleveraging
Bitcoin Shows Early Bottom Signals After Extreme Market Deleveraging
🔄 Bitcoin Bottom Signals
Bitcoin may be forming a stabilisation phase after experiencing extreme market conditions, according to Bitfinex Alpha analysis.
Key market indicators suggest potential relief bounce:
- Extreme deleveraging has cleared excess positions
- Short-term holders showing capitulation signals
- Early signs of seller exhaustion emerging
This follows Bitcoin's significant correction from recent highs, with the market experiencing one of its most meaningful drawdowns of the cycle. The combination of these factors historically creates conditions for local bottoms.
Previous context shows pattern:
- BTC triggered strong early-bottom signals after sharp drawdown
- Market saw classic stabilisation ingredients align
- Four straight weekly declines - first time in over 500 days
While volatility remains elevated, the current setup mirrors previous cyclical bottom formations. The question remains whether this marks the start of recovery or if more downside pressure continues.
Analysts note this consolidation phase, rather than full capitulation, could provide the foundation for the next market move as demand conditions potentially improve.
Crypto liquidations in the last two days have topped $2.8 billion, Bitcoin slipped below $100k, and there are now reduced expectations of a December rate cut are in the air. Why? Our research team has dug into what’s happening. Let’s dive into it! Time for a thread 🧵
Bitcoin declined by over 21% from its October all-time high last week, briefly dipping below the psychological $100,000 level to $99,045. Rather than signalling a sell-off, this move points to the formation of a new consolidation base.
Markets are consolidating and optimism is gradually returning. ⚡️ After October’s $19B liquidation, BTC is still trading above the 0.85 supply quantile cost basis, where 15% of circulating supply would be in loss. More ⬇️
Crypto markets are benefitting from volatility in traditional assets. In what is usually the opposite case, surges in Brent crude to ~$65/barrel, is prompting institutional investors to reassess exposures across bonds, equities, and alternatives - including Bitcoin and Ether. ⬇️
Market pressure on Bitcoin shows seasoned investors are cashing out, according to Bitfinex Alpha. Long-Term Holders are offloading ~104K BTC/month - the sharpest selling wave since July - adding structural pressure as they lock in gains. Read more ⬇️ issuu.com/docs/1ecc7cbae…
📉 #Bitcoin has now posted four straight weekly declines - something we haven’t seen in over 500 days. This time, the move is sharper: over the last month, BTC has fallen 30.6%, even deeper than the 24% drawdown during the 2024 consolidation phase.
BTC slips to 96k Why is the market retracing even after the US government re-opened following the longest shutdown in history? • Key economic data is still missing to guide the market & the Fed • It is not clear how much damage the shutdown has had on growth and productivity
Bitcoin’s 25% pullback may not be as consequential as it may seem. Despite trading below $94K, selling is slowing, hinting at early consolidation rather than full capitulation. Watch our video for details and read the full report: blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha…
Bitcoin lost the $ 107,000 to $ 108,000 region last week and slipped under $ 100,000. That zone carried strong technical and on-chain weight, and the breakdown opened room for deeper price action. 📉
Good morning from Lugano 🇨🇭 Today @ThalexGlobal and Bitfinex Derivatives welcome leading investors, traders, and quantitative experts to the Gamma Summit. A private gathering exploring Bitcoin volatility, options, and liquidity.
“Bitcoin’s volatility is gradually coming down. New types of products are changing market structure and how options interact with perpetual markets.” A key takeaway from the Fireside Chat with @adam3us and @minus1_12 at Bitfinex Derivatives Gamma Summit.
The market’s pulse has slowed. Following last week’s rate cut - but no promise of more - traders are treading carefully. The aftermath of the historic 10.10 liquidation has left markets calmer, as directional flows subside and momentum resets. A thread 🧵
Holding 113k per BTC is critical. 🚨 “Trading above this level has historically marked the transition from corrective phases to accumulation phases.” Failing to do so poses the risk of a deeper retracement toward 97,500. - Bitfinex Alpha in @coindesk coindesk.com/markets/2025/1…
Bitcoin just triggered one of its strongest early-bottom signals of the cycle. After a sharp drawdown, BTC staged a notable rebound, aligning closely with the timing of previous local bottoms, even as volatility remains elevated… Could this be the start of a recovery?
Long-term holders are still taking profits and it’s weighing on the market. Since July, LTH supply has dropped by 0.3M BTC, signalling steady selling as new buyers struggle to match the pace. With inflows muted, the risk of demand exhaustion is rising. 👇
📉 Bitcoin’s momentum is fading & the market’s entering a “reset” phase. After a brief bounce on softer US inflation data, BTC slipped back below key support around $113K. Traders are watching $97.5K as the next line of defence. Here’s what else is shaping the month in crypto👇
At the inaugural Gamma Summit with @contrariangab of @herclegroup, Pierre-Antoine Mudry of @stsdigital_io, and Faiz Rasool say the 10.10 liquidation could have been eased if options markets were deeper, and that adoption will grow once education, liquidity, and better UX are met.
Bitcoin may have found its footing - but the foundation still looks shaky. After a steep $19B liquidation and an 18% drawdown, BTC is stabilising near $107K–$108K. The question now: is this consolidation or the calm before another move? 👇
Where the future of Bitcoin derivatives is defined. The Gamma Summit, hosted by @ThalexGlobal & Bitfinex Derivatives @bitfinex, brings together leading voices in Bitcoin options, futures, volatility & liquidity. Featuring @paoloardoino, @adam3us, @minus1_12 & @FedericoTenga 🧵
Crypto markets are delicately poised, but we have seen all this before: The current correction is similar to June 2024 and Feb 2025, both pivotal inflexion points balancing between recovery and deeper contraction. Bitfinex Alpha in @cointelegraph cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-e…
Our latest Alpha video breaks down last week’s market tone. BTC touched $99,045 in a move that fits earlier mid-cycle resets. We expect some short term rallies to the short-term holder level over $112k, but the lower bound is the Active Investors Realised Price around $88,500.
“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” - Bitfinex Alpha x.com/cryptonews/sta…
🚀 Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound this week, climbing nearly 8% in a single day as analysts pointed to signs that a local bottom may already be in. #Bitcoin #Crypto cryptonews.com/news/bitfinex-…
Unlock the next level of Bitcoin derivatives! The Gamma Summit, hosted by @ThalexGlobal & Bitfinex Derivatives (@bitfinex), is an invite-only forum for professionals to explore options, futures, volatility, hedging & liquidity.
🚨 Bitcoin just logged its third-largest drawdown of this cycle - down 25% from its ATH. Momentum still points downward on lower timeframes… but the pace of selling is finally stabilising. We see this as early signs of consolidation, not capitulation. ⬇️
Bitcoin Miners Sell 5K BTC as Reserves Hit March Lows
Bitcoin miner reserves dropped approximately 5,000 BTC over six weeks, falling to 1.801 million BTC - matching levels last seen in March. During this period, BTC price declined 10% from $82,000 to $76,700. **Key Points:** - Miner reserves now at 1.801M BTC, down ~5K in six weeks - Price fell from $82K to $76.7K (10% decline) - Miners selling into weakness, capping price range - Reserves back at March 2026 lows The selling pressure from miners appears to be preventing price breakouts, keeping Bitcoin range-bound rather than enabling significant moves in either direction.
Bitcoin Funding Rebounds After Major Liquidation, But Institutional Interest Lags
**Retail traders are piling back into Bitcoin longs just 72 hours after the largest liquidation event in three months, while institutional players remain on the sidelines.** - Bitcoin funding rates have surged to +10.95% annualized - Open Interest sits at its lowest level since April 11 - Bitfinex margin longs reached 82,681 BTC last week—highest since November 2023 and an 88% increase from July 2025 lows - This occurred even as BTC dropped 10% and macro conditions tightened **The divergence is notable:** retail traders are re-engaging with leveraged long positions while institutional order books show no similar activity. Over $1.5 billion in open interest has been cleared from recent sessions, resetting positioning after BTC's move toward $82k. Despite Monday's $584 million in long liquidations, Bitcoin holds above the May monthly open. Exchange reserves have hit 7-year lows while stablecoin market cap increased by $2 billion in a week. **Tomorrow's PCE data serves as the next potential catalyst** for price direction, as the market sits with ample ammunition for a move but lacks a clear trigger. [Read the full analysis](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/leverage-reheats-btc-price-structure-weakens/)
Bitcoin Price Holds Despite $700M Daily ETF Outflows
Bitcoin is showing resilience despite significant selling pressure. ETF outflows are running at **-$700M per day**, matching the February levels that previously drove BTC from $100K down to $70K. However, this time the price is holding steady. An **unidentified buyer is absorbing the selling pressure**, preventing the sharp decline seen in February when BTC dropped to $60K. This suggests strong underlying demand at current price levels, with institutional or whale buyers stepping in to support the market despite heavy outflows from exchange-traded funds.
Bitfinex Derivatives Integrates Thalex for Professional Options Analytics
Bitfinex Derivatives has integrated with Thalex to provide customers access to professional options analytics tools. The integration allows Bitfinex Derivatives users to: - Access Thalex's full range of options and futures products - Utilize professional-grade analytics for options trading - Benefit from enhanced trading flexibility This partnership expands the trading capabilities available to Bitfinex Derivatives customers by connecting them directly to Thalex's platform. More details: [Bitfinex announcement](https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/1082)
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Accumulate Again, Supply Nears All-Time High
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have shifted from selling to accumulating, with their supply reaching **16.2M BTC** - close to the **16.3M BTC** all-time high from early 2024. This marks a significant reversal from October 2025, when LTH supply dropped by 0.3M BTC as holders took profits. The renewed accumulation suggests strong conviction among experienced Bitcoin investors despite market conditions. [Source](https://x.com/bitfinex/status/2057687991703712150)