Iran-US Tensions Escalate with Military Response Threats
Iran-US Tensions Escalate with Military Response Threats
🚨 Iran's Next Move?
Iran's military has announced it will determine the timing and scale of its response to recent US actions, with a 51% probability of response by next Monday according to Polymarket predictions. All US citizens and personnel in the region have been declared potential targets.
Key developments:
- Iran claims enriched uranium stockpile remains intact post-US attacks
- US invasion probability stands at 14%
- Nuclear detonation odds this year: 18%
- Previous US strike probability: >70%
- Iran experiencing possible cyberattack with widespread internet disruption (85% likelihood)
Market indicators suggest declining US-Iran nuclear deal prospects (37% chance) amid rising regional tensions.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the US officially declare war with Iran this month?
JUST IN: Polymarket projects Iran’s Supreme Leader to be ousted from power this year. 60% chance.
BREAKING: Advisor of Supreme Leader of Iran claims enriched uranium stockpile remains, despite U.S. attacks. U.S. invasion odds now @ 14%.
BREAKING: Iran may be facing a major cyberattack — "almost complete internet shutdown" 85% chance.
BREAKING: Iran is now experiencing an almost complete internet shutdown.
The odds of a nuclear bomb being detonated this year continue to rise. 18% chance.
The odds of an Israeli military strike against Iran are surging today. 50/50 chance.
The odds of a US x Iran nuclear deal are plummeting, despite media reports. 37% chance.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Tulsi Gabbard resign by Friday?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the U.S. strike Iran's underground nuclear base this month?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Iran's Supreme Leader flee his country this month?
Things are not looking good for Iran's Supreme Leader.
Iran is projected to strike Israel today. 60% chance.
BREAKING: ODDS OF U.S. STRIKE AGAINST IRAN SURGE PAST 70% STRIKE MAY BE "IMMINENT"
BREAKING: Iran says its military will decide “timing, nature, and scale” of its response.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the U.S. evacuate its Baghdad Embassy?
Reflection on Past Market Predictions
A brief look back at our market coverage reveals some interesting patterns. While we faced criticism for allegedly sensationalist headlines about an impending strike in June 2025, subsequent events validated our reporting. The strike did materialize as predicted. Earlier in January 2024, we acknowledged taking a perhaps too conservative stance on the sell the news phenomenon. This demonstrates the challenges in striking the right balance in market reporting.
Nuclear Detonation Risk Rises to 18% Amid US-Iran Tensions
The probability of a nuclear weapon being used in 2025 has increased to 18%, according to prediction markets. This comes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran: - US strike against Iran now estimated at 70% probability - US-Iran nuclear deal chances drop to 37% - Iran-Israel conflict intensifying with mutual strike threats This marks a significant shift from May 2025, when US-Iran nuclear deal prospects were at 65%. Military analysts suggest monitoring the situation closely. *Latest market data indicates heightened regional instability in the Middle East*
Multiple Iran-Related Markets Launch on Polymarket
Several prediction markets focused on potential US-Iran conflict have launched on Polymarket in June 2025: - Latest market questions US strike on Iran's underground nuclear facility - Previous markets cover: * Potential US war declaration * Iran's Supreme Leader possible flight * US Baghdad Embassy evacuation * Tulsi Gabbard resignation The concentration of Iran-focused markets suggests increased attention on Middle East tensions. Markets provide real-time probability estimates based on trader activity.
Iran Considers Closing Strait of Hormuz with 33% Probability
Iran is evaluating the possibility of closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, with market estimates suggesting a 1-in-3 likelihood. In a follow-up statement, Iranian military officials claimed authority over the timing and scope of their response to regional tensions. - Military threatens all US citizens and personnel in the region - 51% probability of Iranian action by next Monday according to prediction markets - Situation remains fluid with multiple potential outcomes *Monitor developments at* [Polymarket](https://poly.market/Y38PLI2) *for real-time probability updates.*