Following the release of the Conservative Party platform, Pierre Poilievre's chances of becoming Canada's next Prime Minister have significantly declined according to Polymarket data.
- Current odds show Liberals at 80% to win
- Conservative supporters could earn 6x returns if successful
- This marks a sharp decline from 55% odds in March after Trudeau's resignation
The dramatic shift in betting markets comes with just 6 days remaining before the election, suggesting the platform release may have impacted voter sentiment.
JUST IN: Canadian Conservative Leader Poilievre released his party platform today. Polymarket data suggests he would have been better off not releasing it… Liberals now @ 80% chance of winning — 6 days to go.
JUST IN: Canadian Conservative Pierre Poilievre's odds of being the next Prime Minister have plummeted to just 16%. Those who think Conservatives will win can earn over 6x their money betting on him if they're right.
Polymarket Launches Series of Prediction Markets on Global Events
Polymarket has launched multiple prediction markets focused on high-profile events and personalities. Key markets include: - Pope Francis' funeral attendance predictions - Trump administration changes and policy decisions - International trade developments, particularly US-China tariffs - Political forecasts for Canada and global events Notable markets show increasing focus on geopolitical events and major political figures. Markets reflect growing uncertainty around international trade relations and political transitions. Current odds suggest significant volatility in predictions for both domestic and international outcomes.
Trump's Statement on Powell's Future at Federal Reserve
Former President Trump has publicly stated he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, should he win the 2024 election. However, prediction markets on Polymarket still indicate a 16% probability of Powell's removal in 2025. This statement follows earlier rumors from April 8th about potential leadership changes at the Fed. The market has maintained consistent odds despite Trump's recent declaration. - Current market probability: 16% - Market available on [Polymarket](https://poly.market/JTdyiVe) - Timeline: Potential action in 2025
Polymarket Predicts New Pope Announcement Date
Prediction market platform Polymarket indicates the next Pope will likely be announced around May 9th, 2025. This follows earlier market movements from February showing a 76% probability of a new Pope being chosen in 2025. The platform aggregates crowd wisdom to generate real-time probability forecasts for major world events. - Current prediction: May 9th announcement - Previous odds: 76% chance in 2025 - Market available at [Polymarket](https://polymkt.com/jpiZf6W)
US-China Tariff Deal Rumors: Market Skepticism Persists
Social media speculation about an imminent US-China tariff agreement continues to circulate, but market indicators suggest skepticism about the deal's likelihood. The uncertainty follows a pattern of market volatility triggered by previous tariff-related developments, notably including Trump's earlier trade policies that rattled investor confidence. - Markets remain cautious despite ongoing rumors - Historical context shows similar patterns of speculation - Trading activity indicates limited confidence in deal completion *Market participants appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach rather than acting on unconfirmed reports.*