Prediction market platform Polymarket indicates the next Pope will likely be announced around May 9th, 2025. This follows earlier market movements from February showing a 76% probability of a new Pope being chosen in 2025.
The platform aggregates crowd wisdom to generate real-time probability forecasts for major world events.
- Current prediction: May 9th announcement
- Previous odds: 76% chance in 2025
- Market available at Polymarket
This forecast represents market sentiment and trading positions, not official Vatican communications.
JUST IN: Polymarket projects the next Pope will be announced around May 9th.
Polymarket Launches Controversial Papal Prediction Market
Polymarket has launched a new prediction market regarding the next Pope's gender identity, marking a significant departure from traditional papal succession discussions. This follows a series of politically-focused markets including Trump administration changes, China tariff negotiations, and potential pardons. Recent markets on the platform have covered: - Trump-China tariff negotiations - U.S. debt default possibilities - Potential Trump administration personnel changes - Anthropic acquisition speculation The platform continues to expand into increasingly diverse and controversial topic areas, reflecting broader societal discussions about institutional change.
US-China Tariff Deal Rumors: Market Skepticism Persists
Social media speculation about an imminent US-China tariff agreement continues to circulate, but market indicators suggest skepticism about these claims. The situation echoes earlier market turbulence from February 2025, when Trump-era tariffs caused significant investor concern over potential trade war escalation. Key points: - Unverified social media claims suggest upcoming tariff deal - Market behavior indicates low confidence in these rumors - Historical context shows lasting impact of previous tariff actions *Markets remain the most reliable indicator of deal probability*
US Recession Probability Trends Upward
Market indicators show increasing likelihood of US recession, with current odds reaching 55% and continuing to rise. This marks a significant jump from March when economist Mohamed El-Erian estimated 25-30% probability. Key points: - Recession odds crossed 50% threshold on April 10 - Markets responded with 2-3% decline - Current trajectory suggests further increase possible *Data sourced from Polymarket prediction markets* Monitor [Polymarket's recession indicators](https://poly.market/pVzdYsf) for real-time probability updates.
IRS Considers Revoking Harvard's Tax-Exempt Status

CNN reports that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is evaluating the potential removal of Harvard University's tax-exempt status. This development follows increased scrutiny of elite educational institutions' tax benefits. - The decision could significantly impact Harvard's financial operations - Market participants can trade on this outcome via [Polymarket](https://poly.market/wcn0Qsm) - This follows broader IRS initiatives to expand tax collection efforts This unprecedented move could reshape the landscape of higher education funding and tax policy.