Unusual Whales

**Economic dislocation among young adults is rising**, according to Financial Times reporting. This trend builds on earlier data showing **young male college graduates now face unemployment rates equal to non-graduates** - a significant shift in traditional employment patterns. Key concerns: - Growing disconnect between young people and economic opportunities - Education no longer guaranteeing employment advantages - Broader social implications of youth economic exclusion The data suggests **structural changes in how young adults participate in the economy**, with potential long-term consequences for both individual prospects and societal stability.

**Morgan Stanley shifts Fed expectations**, predicting no December rate cut despite market speculation. The investment bank forecasts **three rate cuts in 2025**: - January 2025 - April 2025 - June 2025 This contrasts with earlier market predictions that largely ruled out cuts until later in the year. Morgan Stanley's timeline suggests the Fed will begin easing monetary policy in the new year rather than before the holidays. The prediction comes as markets continue to debate the Fed's next moves amid evolving economic conditions.

**Google CEO Sundar Pichai** made a striking statement that the role of a CEO is among the **"easier things"** that AI could replace in the near future. This comment adds to previous predictions from Google's leadership about AI capabilities. Earlier this year, DeepMind's CEO suggested that **AI matching human performance** across all tasks could arrive within 5-10 years. Pichai's remarks raise questions about: - The future of executive leadership roles - Which job functions AI might target first - How companies will adapt their organizational structures The statement comes as AI continues advancing rapidly across industries, with tech leaders increasingly discussing which roles may become automated.

**California will require AI companies to disclose synthetic training data usage** The state is implementing new transparency requirements for artificial intelligence firms operating within its jurisdiction. **Key requirements:** - AI developers must reveal if their models use synthetic training data - This builds on previous proposals requiring disclosure of copyrighted content in training - Aims to increase accountability in AI development practices **Background context:** This follows earlier legislative efforts from April 2024 that would have mandated disclosure of all copyrighted materials used in AI model training. The new rule represents California's continued push for AI transparency and responsible development practices in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence sector.

**Buy Now, Pay Later services saw massive growth this Black Friday**, with overall usage jumping 9% compared to last year. **Younger consumers are driving the trend:** - 41% of shoppers aged 16-24 used BNPL services - Young millennials increased usage by **87%** year-over-year - High earners joining in: 38% of households earning $100k+ now use BNPL **The shift extends beyond shopping sprees.** BNPL is moving into essential purchases, with **25% of users now financing groceries** - a concerning trend that suggests financial strain among consumers. This data aligns with earlier reports showing 1 in 7 Americans using services like Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay for basic necessities like food.

**Illinois Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi has reintroduced the HIRE Act**, proposing to **double the current H-1B visa cap** from 65,000 to 130,000 per year. The timing is notable given recent predictions of a **21% chance that Trump could eliminate H-1B visas** entirely within his first 100 days in office. **Key implications:** - Would significantly increase skilled worker immigration - Comes amid ongoing debate about America's need for foreign tech talent - Creates potential policy conflict with Trump administration priorities The proposal aims to address tech industry labor shortages while navigating complex immigration politics.

Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that **volatile yen movements are clearly not based on economic fundamentals**. This follows previous concerns about yen instability: - The Bank of Japan previously indicated it won't rush interest rate hikes - July's market meltdown was triggered by yen rate changes - Current volatility appears driven by speculation rather than economic data The statement suggests Japanese officials are **monitoring currency markets closely** and may consider intervention if volatility continues. This development could impact global crypto markets, as yen volatility often influences risk-on/risk-off sentiment across digital assets.

According to FORTUNE, a significant portion of the workforce continues to face extended periods of unemployment. The latest data shows that 20% of job seekers have been actively searching for employment for 10-12 months or longer. This trend has remained consistent since February 2025, indicating: - Sustained challenges in the job market - Potential structural changes in employment - Extended job search timelines becoming more common The persistence of long-term job seeking suggests deeper economic shifts that may require new approaches to job hunting and skill development.

Barclays has significantly lowered its S&P 500 year-end target for 2025 to 5900, down from the previous forecast of 6600. This revision represents a notable shift from earlier market optimism, including RBC Capital Markets' projection of 6600 made in late 2024. The adjustment suggests a more conservative outlook for US equities in the coming year. This 700-point reduction reflects changing market conditions and economic expectations. - Previous target: 6600 - New target: 5900 - Reduction: 700 points

JPMorgan has significantly increased its forecast for economic downturn probability from 17% in November to 31% as of March 2025. This follows earlier warnings that U.S. interest rates reaching 7% could trigger a recession and market risk aversion. Key points: - 14% increase in recession probability - Current forecast: 31% chance of downturn - Previous assessment: 17% (November) This update from JPMorgan ($JPM) suggests growing concerns about economic stability in the near term.