Unusual Whales

A new MIT study reveals that **AI technology can currently replace 11.7% of the US workforce**, according to CNBC reporting. This finding adds to growing concerns about AI's impact on employment: - Previous Stanford research showed AI adoption linked to **13% decline in jobs** for young US workers - The data suggests AI displacement is already happening, not just a future threat - Nearly 12% of current jobs could be automated with existing technology The study highlights the **immediate reality** of AI workforce disruption rather than speculative future scenarios. *Key takeaway: AI job replacement is occurring now, affecting over one in ten US workers.*

**Michael Burry warns of prolonged market selloff** exceeding the 2000 dot-com crash, which lasted 31 months. The "Big Short" investor believes this downturn will be different from 2000: - **No safe haven stocks** - Unlike 2000, when some ignored stocks survived the Nasdaq crash - **Entire market vulnerable** - "The whole thing's just going to come down" - **Broader impact expected** across all sectors Burry's prediction suggests **no diversification refuge** during the anticipated crash, contrasting with the selective nature of the dot-com bubble burst. This warning comes as markets remain at elevated levels despite various economic uncertainties.

**US unemployment claims dropped significantly** to 191,000 last week, marking the lowest level since September 2022. - Claims fell by 27,000, beating expectations of 220,000 - Shows **continued strength** in labor market conditions - No signs of deterioration in employment trends The data suggests the job market remains robust despite economic uncertainties. This marks a positive trend for workers and the broader economy.

**Smartphone upgrade cycles are slowing down significantly** Americans now hold onto their smartphones for an average of **29 months**, up from 22 months in 2016 - a 32% increase in device longevity. **Key trends:** - Upgrade cycles continue extending year over year - Consumers keeping devices nearly 2.5 years on average - Represents shift from previous rapid replacement patterns This trend suggests consumers are becoming more selective about upgrades, potentially due to: - Higher device costs - Incremental improvements between generations - Economic considerations The data indicates a maturing smartphone market where users prioritize value over having the latest model.

**China's major state-owned banks purchased dollars** in the onshore spot market this week, according to Reuters reporting. This move comes as China continues exploring digital currency alternatives to reduce dollar dependence. Earlier this year, **dollar dominance through stablecoins** prompted China to consider its own stablecoin projects. However, **capital controls remain a significant barrier** - limiting such initiatives to Hong Kong's offshore renminbi market, where liquidity remains thin. The dollar purchases suggest ongoing pressure on China's currency management strategy.

**US employers cut 71,321 jobs in November**, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data. This follows **October's surge to the highest level in over 20 years**, indicating continued workforce adjustments across industries. - November's figure represents ongoing corporate restructuring efforts - Job cuts remain elevated compared to historical averages - Economic uncertainty continues to drive employment decisions The sustained high levels of job cuts suggest companies are **maintaining cautious approaches** to workforce planning as they navigate current market conditions.

**Bank of America** has set a new price target for the **S&P 500** at **7,100** for 2026. This projection comes as investors increasingly focus on **AI productivity gains** as the primary catalyst for market growth in the coming year. The bank previously raised its 12-month S&P 500 target to 7,200 in September, showing continued optimism about market performance. - Current target represents significant upside potential from present levels - AI-driven productivity expected to fuel corporate earnings growth - Bank maintains bullish outlook on equity markets through 2026 The forecast aligns with broader Wall Street sentiment that **artificial intelligence adoption** will drive the next phase of market expansion.

**Alibaba's CEO** believes an AI bubble is **unlikely to form within the next three years**, adding to recent market sentiment discussions. This follows **Citi's assessment** that the AI bubble hasn't reached its peak yet, suggesting continued growth potential in the sector. Key points: - Alibaba leadership sees **sustained AI growth** ahead - Major financial institutions remain **cautiously optimistic** - Market timing predictions vary across industry leaders The comments come as investors closely watch AI valuations and market dynamics for signs of overheating or continued expansion.

**UK tax structure reveals surprising pattern** - average workers pay less than most international counterparts. **Key findings:** - UK workers taxed below global average - **Steepest tax increase** from middle to high earners worldwide - No other country shows such dramatic progression This creates a unique tax landscape where moderate earners benefit from lower rates, but high earners face significant jumps. The FT analysis highlights how UK's progressive tax system differs markedly from other developed nations. **Context:** This comes as UK household disposable income previously fell at its fastest rate in two years, adding complexity to the tax burden discussion.

**French President Emmanuel Macron** has publicly stated that the United States could potentially betray Ukraine, according to POLITICO reporting. This warning comes amid ongoing concerns about **US commitment** to supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Macron's comments highlight growing tensions within the Western alliance regarding long-term support strategies. The statement reflects broader European anxieties about **American foreign policy reliability**, particularly as political dynamics shift in Washington. France has been a vocal advocate for continued military and financial aid to Ukraine. - Macron's warning signals potential **cracks in NATO unity** - European leaders increasingly concerned about US policy shifts - Statement comes as Ukraine faces critical winter period This development underscores the **fragile nature** of international coalitions during prolonged conflicts and raises questions about future Western coordination on Ukraine policy.