US-Iran Nuclear Deal Chances Drop to 37%
US-Iran Nuclear Deal Chances Drop to 37%
馃毃 Nuclear Deal Hope Fades
The probability of a successful US-Iran nuclear deal has declined significantly to 37%, contradicting recent media optimism. This follows a turbulent period where:
- Deal prospects peaked at 65% in May 2025
- Israel-Iran tensions escalated with 50% chance of Israeli military action
- Iran showed increased aggression toward Israel
Market sentiment suggests diplomatic solutions are becoming less likely as regional tensions continue to rise.
The odds of an Israeli military strike against Iran are surging today. 50/50 chance.
The odds of a US x Iran nuclear deal are plummeting, despite media reports. 37% chance.
Iran is projected to strike Israel today. 60% chance.
Multiple Polymarket Predictions Surface Around US-Iran Tensions
Several prediction markets have emerged on Polymarket focusing on escalating US-Iran tensions: - Market opened on potential flight of Iran's Supreme Leader - Previous markets track possibility of US formal war declaration - Related market monitors potential US Baghdad Embassy evacuation These markets reflect growing concerns about regional stability and diplomatic relations between the US and Iran. Prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom to estimate event probabilities. *Note: Prediction markets are speculative tools and should not be considered definitive indicators of future events.*
Iran Considers Closing Strait of Hormuz as US Nuclear Deal Hopes Fade
Iran is reportedly evaluating the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with prediction markets indicating a 1 in 3 probability of this occurring. This development comes as the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal continues to decline, now estimated at 37% despite contrary media reports. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil supply, making this potential action significant for international markets and geopolitical stability.
Iran Supreme Leader Health Watch & Recession Odds Update
Market sentiment indicates growing uncertainty regarding Iran's Supreme Leader's situation, with prediction markets reflecting changing odds. Track real-time developments at [Polymarket](https://poly.market/PUNtsAm). Separately, recession probability indicators have risen to 41%, showing increased economic concern. Follow market-based recession forecasts at [Polymarket](https://poly.market/8A9M4G8). These prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom to estimate event probabilities.
NYC Mayoral Race: Socialist Candidate Closes Gap with Cuomo
In a dramatic shift from May's predictions, the New York City mayoral race has become increasingly competitive. Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani has gained significant momentum, turning what was considered a near-certain victory for Andrew Cuomo (93% probability in May) into a dead heat. The latest polling data shows the race is now essentially tied, with both candidates hovering around 50% support. This represents a remarkable turnaround in just over two weeks, challenging earlier assumptions about Cuomo's grip on the Democratic nomination. - Mamdani's surge suggests growing support for progressive policies - Previous predictions of Cuomo's nomination now appear premature - Race outcome remains highly uncertain