Iran Considers Closing Strait of Hormuz with 33% Probability

**Trump has officially requested U.S. Military deployment in Chicago**, escalating from previous plans for federal agents and National Guard troops. This follows a pattern of increasing federal intervention: - August: Plans for hundreds of federal agents in Chicago for deportation operations - National Guard deployment across 19 states for immigration enforcement - Previous declarations about potential military deployment in Chicago and NYC **The request represents a significant escalation** from civilian federal agents to active military forces for domestic operations. The deployment would focus on crime reduction efforts in Chicago, marking a notable shift in federal law enforcement strategy.

**Prediction markets show France has a 72% probability of receiving a credit rating downgrade this year**, according to data from Polymarket. The high likelihood reflects growing concerns about France's fiscal position and economic outlook. Credit rating downgrades typically increase borrowing costs for governments and can signal underlying financial stress. **Key points:** - 72% chance of downgrade based on market predictions - Would affect France's sovereign debt costs - Reflects broader economic uncertainties Separately, markets are pricing in an **85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month**, suggesting central banks may be preparing to ease monetary policy. Both predictions highlight significant shifts in European financial markets and policy expectations for the remainder of 2025.

**New prediction market** now live on Polymarket asking whether rapper Meek Mill will secure funding from venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (A16Z) in 2025. The market joins Polymarket's growing collection of **entertainment and celebrity-focused** prediction opportunities, following recent markets on Kanye West and other pop culture figures. **Key details:** - Market focuses on potential A16Z investment in Meek Mill ventures - Part of Polymarket's expansion into entertainment sector betting - Users can trade on probability of funding announcement this year This represents Polymarket's continued diversification beyond traditional political and sports markets into **celebrity business ventures** and entertainment industry predictions. [Trade on the market](https://poly.market/MhI9Mvx)

**Prediction markets signal high confidence in Fed rate cut** Polymarket users are betting heavily on a **25 basis point interest rate reduction** this month, with odds reaching **85%**. This follows previous market sentiment showing over 80% probability that Jerome Powell would cut rates, indicating sustained expectations for monetary policy easing. - Current odds: 85% chance of 25 bps cut - Consistent with recent market predictions - Reflects broader expectations of Fed policy shift The prediction market data suggests traders believe economic conditions warrant a rate reduction, though the actual Federal Reserve decision remains pending. [View current betting odds](https://poly.market/oP6id6P)

**Andrew Cuomo's chances of winning NYC's mayoral election have surged to 18%** amid speculation that current Mayor Eric Adams may drop out of the race. This represents a significant shift in the political landscape, as Cuomo had previously secured the Democratic nomination with a 93% probability back in May. **Key developments:** - Cuomo announced his mayoral run in February 2025 - Won the Democratic nomination with overwhelming support - Current odds reflect uncertainty around Adams' potential withdrawal The former governor's path to City Hall now appears more challenging than initially expected, despite his strong primary performance earlier this year. Prediction markets are closely tracking this developing story as New Yorkers await official confirmation of Adams' plans.