Polymarket has launched a new prediction market focused on Trump's next National Security Advisor appointment. This follows a series of Trump administration-related markets including:
- Potential staff departures
- Policy decisions on tariffs
- Diplomatic meetings
- Administrative changes
The platform continues to track various political outcomes, with markets showing active trading on both domestic and international policy decisions. Recent markets have particularly focused on Trump's executive decisions and administrative appointments.
Key Context: Previous markets on Trump administration changes have seen significant trading volume, indicating strong public interest in predicting White House personnel decisions.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: BitBoy convicted? poly.market/jrlCdjU
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Trump pause reciprocal tariffs on EU before they go into effect Wednesday? poly.market/6WpudqZ
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Who will attend Pope Francis' funeral?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin before May? poly.market/5pJhnAB
CHINA ASKS TRUMP TO MAKE A DEAL ON TARIFFS 50/50 chance it happens this month.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Peter Navarro out of Trump administration in April? PETER RETARRDO?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: What will Trump say at tonight's NRCC Dinner? poly.market/nkRJmvZ
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Canadian Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? poly.market/K3phavW
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Anthropic be acquired this year? poly.market/9zV4ICY
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Trump increase tariffs on China (again) by Friday? poly.market/jSey8lO
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the United States deport Melania Trump? poly.market/q233dVn
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Who will leave Trump Administration this year? poly.market/9gOGxpM
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will new pope be 70+ years old?
NEW: Trump now expected to reduce the majority of tariffs before July. Time to make a deal? poly.market/lRijH7O
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing next month?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Who will Trump pardon this year?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Who will Trump appoint as his next National Security Advisor?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Major earthquake (7.0 or above on the Richter scale) before May? poly.market/KFXehex
JUST IN: Trump is expected to raise the tariffs on China yet again, in response to potential retaliatory tariffs. Rumors are swirling the rate will be increased from 54% to 100% — or more. poly.market/VFre1gb
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Jagmeet Singh lose his seat? poly.market/cmkoZ8g
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the IRS collect more taxes this year than last? poly.market/1CUhBAk
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the next Pope be trans?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Impractical Jokers' Joe Gatto charged with sex crime? poly.market/xBB3qFT
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will the U.S. default on its debt this year? poly.market/qYlRO4E
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Trump claim the Moon landing was fake? poly.market/89I8svH
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: What will Trump say during his meeting & press conference with Netanyahu today? poly.market/affnG6N
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Fear & Greed Index in "Extreme Fear" every day this week? poly.market/6NMInfS
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: What will Trump say during his 100 Day Commemorative Rally?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will @LauraLoomer join the Trump administration this month? poly.market/U6aTkPw
Vatican Papal Selection Process Continues

Black smoke has emerged from the Vatican for the second consecutive day, indicating no new Pope has been selected. The papal conclave continues its deliberations, with market participants anticipating a final decision before the weekend. Earlier predictions from February showed a 76% probability of a new Pope being selected this year. - Current status: No selection made - Timeline expectation: Decision likely before weekend - Market sentiment: High confidence in 2025 selection Follow live odds and trading activity: [Polymarket Papal Selection](https://poly.market/pLkKcpD)
Fed Rate Cut Odds Drop During Powell Press Conference

Market sentiment shifted dramatically during Jerome Powell's recent press conference, with prediction markets showing the probability of a June rate cut falling to just 15%. The sharp decline in rate cut expectations reflects growing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Notably, prediction markets are also pricing a 13% probability that Trump could remove Powell from his position as Fed Chair. For real-time odds tracking: - June Rate Cut: [Check Live Odds](https://poly.market/RkMXbCo) - Powell Removal: [Check Live Odds](https://poly.market/M5S7UBF)
Fed Maintains Current Interest Rates, Market Awaits Future Guidance
The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at their current levels for the second consecutive meeting. Markets are particularly focused on the Fed's economic projections and potential signals about future rate adjustments. Key points: - Rates remain unchanged in May 2025 - Traders seeking clarity on potential future cuts - Economic projections under close scrutiny This decision aligns with widespread market expectations, though attention now shifts to the Fed's forward guidance and economic outlook.
Trump Rejects China Tariff Reduction as Market Odds Decline

Former President Trump has stated his opposition to reducing China tariffs, causing prediction market odds for a May tariff reduction to drop to 47%. This marks a significant shift from early April when the odds were rising, following the implementation of new 125% tariffs on Chinese goods. - Current odds: 47% (down) - Previous trend: Rising (April) - Tariff rate: 125% Track live market movements: [Polymarket Odds](https://poly.market/XlmNA21)
Australian Election Results: Labor Party Victory Aligns with Polymarket Predictions
As polls close in Australia's national election, early indicators suggest the Labor Party is on track to secure a majority government, confirming Polymarket's prediction markets which gave Labor a 62% chance of victory. The prediction markets once again demonstrated their accuracy in forecasting political outcomes, with final results pending confirmation. - Labor Party projected to form majority government - Polymarket's 62% probability proves accurate - Official results expected shortly