Bitcoin Market Analysis: Volatility Amid Macro Pressures

Bitcoin miner reserves dropped approximately 5,000 BTC over six weeks, falling to 1.801 million BTC - matching levels last seen in March. During this period, BTC price declined 10% from $82,000 to $76,700. **Key Points:** - Miner reserves now at 1.801M BTC, down ~5K in six weeks - Price fell from $82K to $76.7K (10% decline) - Miners selling into weakness, capping price range - Reserves back at March 2026 lows The selling pressure from miners appears to be preventing price breakouts, keeping Bitcoin range-bound rather than enabling significant moves in either direction.

**Retail traders are piling back into Bitcoin longs just 72 hours after the largest liquidation event in three months, while institutional players remain on the sidelines.** - Bitcoin funding rates have surged to +10.95% annualized - Open Interest sits at its lowest level since April 11 - Bitfinex margin longs reached 82,681 BTC last week—highest since November 2023 and an 88% increase from July 2025 lows - This occurred even as BTC dropped 10% and macro conditions tightened **The divergence is notable:** retail traders are re-engaging with leveraged long positions while institutional order books show no similar activity. Over $1.5 billion in open interest has been cleared from recent sessions, resetting positioning after BTC's move toward $82k. Despite Monday's $584 million in long liquidations, Bitcoin holds above the May monthly open. Exchange reserves have hit 7-year lows while stablecoin market cap increased by $2 billion in a week. **Tomorrow's PCE data serves as the next potential catalyst** for price direction, as the market sits with ample ammunition for a move but lacks a clear trigger. [Read the full analysis](https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/leverage-reheats-btc-price-structure-weakens/)

Bitcoin is showing resilience despite significant selling pressure. ETF outflows are running at **-$700M per day**, matching the February levels that previously drove BTC from $100K down to $70K. However, this time the price is holding steady. An **unidentified buyer is absorbing the selling pressure**, preventing the sharp decline seen in February when BTC dropped to $60K. This suggests strong underlying demand at current price levels, with institutional or whale buyers stepping in to support the market despite heavy outflows from exchange-traded funds.

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Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have shifted from selling to accumulating, with their supply reaching **16.2M BTC** - close to the **16.3M BTC** all-time high from early 2024. This marks a significant reversal from October 2025, when LTH supply dropped by 0.3M BTC as holders took profits. The renewed accumulation suggests strong conviction among experienced Bitcoin investors despite market conditions. [Source](https://x.com/bitfinex/status/2057687991703712150)