Augur's Final Chapter: The 2020 Trump Re-election Market

Augur is conducting what appears to be the first live fork of a decentralized oracle system with real value at stake. The **Moon Fork** runs until August 1, with no ability to pause or intervene. **Key points:** - REP token holders' decisions during this period will create a permanent public record - No simulation could replicate this real-world test - Results will inform future development, including Augur Lituus - The outcome will provide lessons for the broader decentralized oracle category This represents a critical stress test for decentralized dispute resolution mechanisms, as the system operates without safety nets typically available in centralized systems. Full details: [Augur blog post](https://www.augur.net/blog/augur-testing-past-building-future/)

**Augur Lituus** introduces a new security model for decentralized oracles, quantifying the cost of manipulation at **134% of fully diluted valuation**—higher than Augur v2's 92%. **How the protection works:** - Attackers must buy over half the token supply and render it worthless - The protocol then mints replacement supply, forcing attackers to repeat the process - All assumptions are published openly for independent verification The project also funds **Dark Florist**, an independent team working on the same problem, preferring multiple serious attempts over declaring victory. Meanwhile, **Augur's Moon Fork** serves as a real-world test—the first time a decentralized oracle has run a last-resort fork with actual value at stake and no ability to pause or intervene. REP token holders' decisions through August 1 will create a permanent record of how these systems perform under pressure, informing future development of Augur Lituus.

Augur has released **ForkWatch**, a read-only tracking tool that allows users to monitor fork migration progress and check if addresses still hold REPv1 or REPv2 tokens. **Key features:** - Track migration progress in real-time - Verify token holdings across addresses - Monitor exchange migration support status - No wallet connection required—completely read-only **Migration resources available:** - Official migration tool: https://6.augurfork.eth.limo - Migration guide: https://augur.net/learn/fork/migration/ - ForkWatch dashboard: https://v3.augur.net/ *Important:* Always verify URLs before connecting any wallet. ForkWatch itself requires no signatures or transactions—actual migration happens through the official migration tool only.

After a decade of operation, **Augur has executed its first-ever fork**. This marks a significant milestone for the decentralized prediction market protocol. **Background:** - Augur launched 10 years ago as a decentralized oracle and prediction market on Ethereum - The protocol has been working on triggering crypto's first algorithmic fork - Recent updates positioned Augur as infrastructure for the booming prediction market sector The fork represents a major technical achievement for one of Ethereum's longest-running DeFi protocols, demonstrating the maturity of its dispute resolution mechanism after years of continuous operation.

The Lituus Foundation has published a whitepaper detailing **Augur Lituus**, a generalized version of the original Augur oracle designed for Ethereum protocols and prediction markets. **Key features:** - Economic security through game theory rather than token voting or veto mechanisms - Designed to be expensive to manipulate - Surveys existing oracle landscape and analyzes economic vulnerabilities This represents one of two active development efforts in Augur's revival, alongside work by Dark Florists on mainnet prediction tools. [Read the full whitepaper](https://medium.com/@lituusfoundation/the-augur-lituus-whitepaper-9a93162028f2?postPublishedType=initial)